Trading Jenga

Tuesday, August 30, 2016

Is Gas Stronger Than WTI Oil?

Oil's trading range may fluctuate for the remainder of 2016. Russia war plans dropped weapons into Syria from Iran. This escalates existing violence and damage energy infrastructure to the point of shutting in production. Turmoil has increased. Storage numbers climbed. There is decreased demand for crude oil. It is almost the end of summer and oil demand drops with the end of summer. Vitol is a great company for seasoned commodity advice.

Many predictions for significantly lower oil prices surface as summer ends. Supply issues may govern and Middle Eastern oil field production may drop. Recent air attacks on Libya widen the area of impact for increased stress and war. Market expansion in Mexico supports decent oil prices. Financial collapse in Venezuela reduces energy demand.

How does Middle Eastern conflict intertwine with slowing global demand, lower revenue, and falling medium and long-term bond rates? The currency market shows volatility and forecasts are undependable due to a lack of negative interest rate markets historical data. The USA has announced there are no plans for negative interest rates and interest rate yields have slightly risen.

The recent higher oil price increased the desire of investors to approve new drilling budget increases for Marcellus Shale. Several billion dollars for 2016's Marcellus drilling budget is back on the tables. Companies react quickly to higher prices with budget allocations for new drilling. The natural gas numbers are slightly stronger than oil at the present time. Hedging gas over oil seems like a decent guess. Oil numbers for Jan 2017 and Dec 2017 appear low.

Recent movement produced a twenty percent higher move for natural gas than oil. This is not huge in this tight market. Brent is $49.22 per Barrel moving slightly lower in a narrow range, and natural gas's movement appears similar in direction, but less painful. It fell to $2.86 per MMbtu. Storage is the magic eight ball.

Dr. Rebecca Stone © 2016 SpeedyReads.com ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

Trading Jenga is a copyrighted and branded news journalism created by Rebecca Stone. Its Content accessed by You transfers no right, title or interest in or to such Content or any intellectual property rights or copyrights to the above Content. Photo copyrights are not owned by Rebecca Stone.

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Dr. Rebecca Stone earned a MBA in Finance from the University of St. Thomas in Houston, a Masters Degree from the Texas Health and Science University in Austin, BBA from the University of Texas at Austin, and a foreign Medical Degree in Alternative Medicine. Her medical writing includes over three hundred articles in the field of medicine and alternative medicine. She has written three medical books available online.

SpeedyReads publishes book written by Dr. Rebecca Stone, including The New Drone Juggernaut ©2015, Quantum Brain Healing ©2011, Quantum Orthomolecular Medicine ©2011, and Horny Goat Weed, the Magic Chinese Herb ©2015. The most recent book will be available in Spanish in the near future at Barnes & Noble.

Her current status at AMAZON for the Kindle book Horny Goat Weed, the Magic Chinese Herb ©2015 reached the top 5% of paid book sales for it’s medical category. Dr. Rebecca Stone also wrote The Undersea Adventures of Aladin and Alibaba.

Saturday, August 20, 2016

Crude Oil and International Conflict

WTI crude oil closed for the week at $48.52. Brent closed at $50.88 a barrel on the European Futures Market. This is an upbeat outcome for last month’s projections. Where is this headed?

Crude’s trading range will fluctuate with increased volatility for the remainder of 2016. Russia war planes dropped weapons into Syria from Iran. This escalates existing violence and may damage energy infrastructure to the point of shutting in production sooner rather than later. Venezuela expects to double its crude oil output due to the recent price jump.

Many predictions for significantly lower oil prices are pinned to slowing demand as summer ends. Supply issues may govern and Middle Eastern oil field production may drop. Recent air attacks on Libya widen the area of impact for increased stress and war. This is not a mirage. Expanded international conflict in Libya, Iraq, Turkey, Syria, and Iran makes it impossible to forecast currency fluctuations and crude’s trading zone.

How does Middle Eastern conflict intertwine with slowing global demand, lower revenue, and falling medium and long term bond rates? The currency market has seen drama and forecasts are undependable due to the lack of historical scenarios which include negative interest rate markets. Cheaper currency may seem to lower the purchase of crude oil , but the reality is that Middle Eastern oil does not rely on US currency rates to make its oil market.

The players in the Middle East are using Turkey and Syria. Russia, USA, and Britain have engaged in bombing for over one year in an area which has not declared war. There is a large amount of oil at stake. War always eventually increases the price of oil. Expect a new trading range over $50 until Middle Eastern bombing by Russia is stopped. There is pressure from Washington to keep a lid on energy prices until after the election.

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Thursday, August 4, 2016

Surplus Inventory Leads to Drop in Crude Oil Prices

Trading crude oil just became tougher. The market has softened. It should remain soft until the November election in the USA. The supply increase has exceeded the normal summer demand and surprise oil inventory is stored in areas not previously subjected to inclusion in crude oil inventory numbers. Will low crude oil energy prices reinforce foreign negative interest rates?

Will the USA Energy Department amend the manner of its inventory records to include all crude oil stored in rail tanks and privately owned assets like Cargill and Koch? Do privately held family trust and family company assets outside of America have monthly inventory reporting requirements?

Increased war related events in oil supply areas could produce an unexpected ending. The ISIS attack by America on Libya and Syrian attacks on Russia imply increasing politically related violence ahead.

Is another Middle Eastern world war ahead with Turkey, Syria, Iran, Iraq, and Libya involvement in failed crisis resolution related to Al Qaeda and ISIS? Could this potential event raise oil prices and save the Canadian and USA shale oil fields from temporary extinction related to bankruptcy filings in the E&P industry? Crude oil prices fall towards the low end of the $40 to $50 per barrel trading range and natural gas prices remain below $3.00 per mcf.

Is this an longer term energy price recession? Will crude oil prices bounce back above $50 per barrel after the Presidential election?

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Tuesday, August 2, 2016

Trading Jenga: Trading Range for Crude Oil

The summer dance of crude oil is fairly tight due to new events such as increase output from Iran and decreased demand. Front month August NYMEX price bounced from $45 to $50 per barrel. As summer trading continues, crude oil prices fell to $40 per barrel. World crude oil supplies increased, along with violence around the globe. August WTI crude oil prices pierced the $40 per barrel floor

with $39.20 and Brent crude oil futures hit $41.60 per barrel.

This changes in export laws and policies enable different logistical transportation of supplies to move behind the curtain without being seen. Vitol recently exported crude oil from Libya. Libyan oil supply and Iranian crude imply significantly increased volumes. The USA recently attacked ISIS in Libya. Will this curtail Vitol's exports? European demand appears stagnant. China and the USA are both exporting crude products. This is a major departure from past historical comparisons.

Negative bond rates have expanded across the world. Lower yields, decreased demand, and increased suppliers reflect a trading range which currently remains between $42 and $62 for the coming year. An expansion of negative yields should lower the top trading range about $48 to $50.

BREXIT impact is lower demand. Parking money in crude oil seems safer in the near term for hedge funds. Depending upon the currency hedge, some currencies trades have lost almost 30% in the first half of 2016. Banking failures seem imminent as EU budgets shrink, currency volatility increases, and yields fall.

Will these circumstances close any trading offices in Europe? How do negative yields impact margin accounts? Does the margin accounts interest increase in nominal terms due to its percentage of trade value?

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Quantum Brain Healing: With Alternative Medicine (Volume 1)
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Horny Goat Weed, the Magic Chinese Herb
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